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Without strong profit progress in the Q1 earnings season starting in mid-April, US stocks may surrender their 8.2% year-to-date gain. Loftier estimates, top-heavy earnings are reasons for worryFirms have a rather low bar to clear in the upcoming earnings season, as is often the case. The market's largest companies are disproportionately driving earnings growth in addition to stock returns, Goldman Sachs found. The Q1 earnings season begins in earnest on Friday as big banks share results. Early reporters have beaten earnings estimates by 13.5%, Golub wrote, which he added is more than double the typical rate.
Persons: Richard Saperstein, James Ragan, David Kostin, Goldman Sachs, Kostin, Anthony Saglimbene, Ameriprise, we're, Saglimbene, Arun Bharath, Bharath, Jonathan Golub, Golub, they're Organizations: Federal Reserve, Business, Treasury Partners, DA Davidson, Nvidia, Big Tech, Bel Air Investment Advisors, UBS, Institute for Supply Management Locations: America
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTreasury Partners' Rich Saperstein still likes the long-term growth of the Magnificent 7Rich Saperstein, Treasury Partners founding principal, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss small caps and the stocks outside of the 'Mag 7'.
Persons: Rich Saperstein Organizations: Treasury Partners
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe bond market is where the action is right now, says Treasury Partners' Richard SapersteinJoe Terranova, Bryn Talkington, Steve Weiss, and Richard Saperstein join 'Halftime Report' to discuss the bond market's reaction to the treasury refunding, fiscal stimulus working its way through the economy, and seasonality in the market.
Persons: Richard Saperstein Joe Terranova, Bryn Talkington, Steve Weiss, Richard Saperstein Organizations: Partners
Stock futures were little changed on Monday night. Futures tied to the S&P 500 added 0.03%, while Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.05%. During Monday's trading, the 30-stock Dow closed lower by 74.15 points, or 0.2%, while the S&P 500 inched higher by 0.01%. The S&P 500 alone lost nearly 5% in September. On the economic data front, investors will be watching the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for August, due Tuesday morning.
Persons: Stocks, Richard Saperstein, Dow Jones Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, Dow, Treasury, Investors, Treasury Partners, Labor, Survey Locations: Washington
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThere's great opportunity in the bond market, says Treasury Partners' Rich SapersteinRich Saperstein, Treasury Partners, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss why he believes investors expectations in the market are too optimistic.
Persons: Rich Saperstein Rich Saperstein Organizations: Partners, Treasury Partners
The pros share their expectations and tips for how investors can trade in the month ahead. The volatility isn't over The "potential bite" of aggressive Fed policy could lead to more volatility, said Richard Saperstein, chief investment officer at investment firm Treasury Partners, in a Tuesday note. Avoid tech — but not completely Avoid mega-cap tech stocks such as the "Magnificent Seven" now, the pros said, referring to Apple , Amazon , Alphabet , Meta , Microsoft , Nvidia and Tesla — tech stocks that have made massive gains this year. "Big tech stocks have run and valuations are richer than they have been. Dave Sekera, chief U.S. market strategist at Morningstar, said on Thursday that not all tech stocks are overvalued.
Persons: Richard Saperstein, Ben Kirby, CNBC's, Carol Schleif, George Ball, Sanders Morris Harris, Schleif, Ball, it's, Dave Sekera, Kirby, Thornburg, Morgan Stanley, Andrew Slimmon Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, Treasury Partners, Thornburg Investment Management, BMO Family Office, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla, Big Tech, Morningstar, Autodesk, Software, Teladoc, CNBC, CME, Hyatt Hotels, Hotels, Resorts, Hilton Hotels, Morgan, Morgan Stanley Investment, United Rentals Locations: U.S, China, Argentine
US stocks rose higher on Friday as the Fed's favorite inflation gauge cooled to a two-year low. PCE inflation rose just 0.2% month-over-month in June, in line with economists' expectations. The Dow and S&P 500 are on track to close off their third straight winning week. The Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, rose just 0.2% in June, in-line with economists' estimates. Commentators point out that headline inflation remains well-above the Fed's 2% long-run target.
Persons: Richard Saperstein, Saperstein Organizations: Dow, Service, Dow Jones Industrial, Federal, Fed, Treasury Partners Locations: Wall, Silicon, decelerate
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHedge the slowdown in equities with investments in bonds, says Treasury Partners' Richard SapersteinJosh Brown, Jenny Harrington and Richard Saperstein join 'Halftime Report' to discuss trends in commercial real estate, projections for a slowdown in the back half of the year, and finding opportunities in the bond market.
Persons: Richard Saperstein Josh Brown, Jenny Harrington, Richard Saperstein Organizations: Partners
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTreasury Partners' Saperstein makes bearish case for the market, the fundamentals are deterioratingRichard Saperstein, Treasury Partners chief investment officer, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss conflicting signals in the market and his playbook in the market.
Treasury yields climb to begin second quarter
  + stars: | 2023-04-03 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
ET, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was up by around 4 basis points to 3.5318%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond added just over 2 basis points to 3.7092%. The yield on the 2-year note rose by more than 7 basis points to 4.1351%. U.S. Treasury yields were higher on Monday morning as the bond market emerged from a wild first quarter. "Investors should follow the markets, not the Federal Reserve for clues on when the central bank's rate hikes will end," said Richard Saperstein, chief investment officer at New York-based Treasury Partners. Auctions will be held Monday for $57 billion of 13-week Treasury bills and $48 billion of 26-week bills.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMarkets will have a business cycle with lower EPS and weak stocks, says Treasury Partners' Richard SapersteinRichard Saperstein of Treasury Partners joins 'Closing Bell: Overtime' to discuss his 2023 playbook.
After years of offering low returns, bond yields are up as the Fed raises interest rates. Both UBS Asset Management and Bank of America have shared charts showing why bonds look attractive. Sign up for our newsletter to get the inside scoop on what traders are talking about — delivered daily to your inbox. If the economy slows meaningfully, inflation will likely cool, leading to falling interest rates and higher bond prices." Below are charts that Bank of America and UBS Asset Management shared to put bonds' current attractiveness into historical context.
It's the bond market's time to shine
  + stars: | 2022-11-06 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +6 min
Bond yields are at their highest levels in years. The result has been nothing but pain for stock and bond prices since the start of the year. Another reason is because in a recessionary environment, bond prices typically rise as investors pile into safe-haven assets like Treasurys. "Bond investors are facing a unique win-win scenario right now," Saperstein said in an October memo. He continued: "If inflation and rates continue to rise, bond prices will decline but unrealized price losses can be meaningfully offset by locked-in 4-6% income returns.
In a recession, investors seek safe-haven assets like high-quality bonds, and the increased demand for them lifts their prices. "Bond investors are facing a unique win-win scenario right now," Saperstein said in a memo on Monday. Bond yields are expected by many to continue rising in the months ahead as the Fed continues on its hawkish path. Saperstein's preferred area of the bond market is municipal bonds, which are issued by public entities like cities or states. We're starting to take advantage of this higher-rate environment by 'opting-in' and purchasing longer dated, high-grade municipal bonds within client portfolios," he said.
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